We Found the Culprit

by Ben Lilly

Catching Wicks While I Sleep

Upon waking yesterday I checked the on-chain alerts from Jarvis. It's a daily habit. The idea is to get a feel for what was happening before looking at a price chart. What I saw resembled what can only be described as a scatterbrained five years old hyped on sugar who took the reins for a few hours.

ETH and stablecoins were the assets making all the noise from Jarvis. It started about two hours before the price began to reverse. Then tapered off shortly after the New York open. This means for anybody in the U.S. all the market activity took place during sleeping hours.

That's what makes crypto so difficult to trade-in. It requires a certain level of crazy obsession disguised as dedication in order to track something 24/7/365. Traders tend to burn out quickly. But it's not just that...

It's the sheer volatility of it all and how it can literally ransack a trade in a mere instant.

Yesterday bitcoin dropped from over $33,000 to $27,000. And $4,000 of that drop happened in less than an hour. In its wake, $1.2 billion got liquidated on the Binance Futures platform.

Where were you in that hour? How much time passed before you noticed the whiplash? If you're not paying attention this market can destroy your capital.

Jarvis traders on the other-hand caught and sold a LINK wick amidst the violence. I was personally asleep when it happened. Literally making trades while I slept.

But enough of my beauty sleep... Here's what happened.

Over the course of 72 hours, we were alerting our Telegram channel subscribers to exercise caution in their trades. The market was getting a bit out of whack.

The price in the futures market was leading the spot market, which means futures and leveraged traders were becoming euphoric. These are the risk-takers. And when risk-takers get crazy it means we are getting ready for some turbulence.

A good way to spot this euphoria or greed is in the premium. Leveraged traders were paying top dollar to hold a long position. Interest upwards of 0.9% a day. Where's the sanity on that?

When the market gets this loony we can expect traders to close these positions, which is what happened. Soon a cacophony of margin calls, stop losses getting triggered and liquidations followed. The speed at which price moved causes many traders to second guess themselves or simply take a break. The whiplash can paralyze many new traders.

For anybody paying attention to Jarvis during those days, you'll notice it got a bit quiet. Risk levels were hitting 99 out of 100 on our index, premiums were very high, and even stabelcoin yields in the market were spiking. It doesn't get much more extreme than that. Mystery Buyer
Now, as the dust settles from the eventful day where Wall Street returned to their offices again, we were lucky enough to find out our Grayscale Effect buyer... Turns out it was an entity coming back for another round of lockups, Three Arrows Capital. With the countdown timer on their lockups beginning, we eye June as the period when they'll be driving spot price again.

Unlockings follow lockings,

spot driving begets arbing

premiums stack my sats

Grayscale Effect stacks the deck

While retail gets smashed...

R.I.P. ETHE share holders yesterday.

Seems a massive unlocking crushed the ETHE premium. Thanks MB for the message on that. The Grayscale Effect on ETH is looking real and it's most likely why we saw the price go parabolic last weekend.

I've only just started diving into the Trust, but if this turns out to be true then the second half of 2021 will be unreal. Enjoy the free ride.

Your pulse on crypto,

B. Lilly

p.s. - Until further notice monthly subscriptions is no longer available. Annual and lifetime are still available. More details below.

Jarvis Update

Until further notice monthly subscriptions are no longer available. Each month we set aside a certain amount, but in order to prioritize alpha, we can't budge on this. However, we still have annual and lifetime slots available.

We apologize for the inconvenience.

In an effort to free up slots we are offering a limited-time opportunity for monthly subscribers to upgrade to annual or lifetime. If you’re interested we’ll pass along a 20% discount, that’s a $500 savings or two months free. Or on a lifetime that’s $2,000 off, almost a year for free!

Contact @benjamin_bc if you have any questions.

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-Jarvis Labs Team

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