Let's Hope The FED Does Nothing
by Ben Lilly
Satiate Your Hunger
Fourth Turning, Ray Dalio debt cycles, imminent inflation, or a host of other reasons might have turned you on to bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.
For others, it might have been price speculation... But from what I can tell most of you reading this fall into the former category.
Now, I love these macro big picture topics and each one in itself deserves a book worth of ink in order to the subject matter justice. And quite frankly, I'm not the expert when it comes to it. Which is why you won't find me dedicating an issue to one of those topics very often.
However, I do subscribe to many of those ideas that are floating around. They help shape my personal view on the world.
I, like many of you I'm sure, found my way down the rabbit hole in part because very broadly speaking, things weren't sustainable. Things being various forms of debt, fiat, inflation, overly influential financiers of New York City, Federal Reserve's unique status, and more.
If you're like me and look to satiate some of that hunger, here's a great podcast episode to listen to (here). The hosts are rather youthful and don't have a background in economics or macro investing, so you'll need to bear with them a bit. Regardless, Lyn Alden makes this a must listen.
Tomorrow Alright, back to business...
Tomorrow US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will get on zoom and state some well rehearsed thoughts and answer some softball pitch questions. The main topic seems to be inflation and what measures the Federal Reserve will employ to keep it at their target 2% level.
The most interesting potential topic is the roaring equities market. Stocks are getting wild as just the other day an online forum, Reddit, helped short squeeze a stock and likely blow up a hedge fund's working capital. This type of activity is reminiscent of the melt up stage in markets, but it's yet to be seen if regulators plan to pop it or let it run its course.
The other piece of news was FinCEN extends the comment period by sixty days to allow the public to comment on the controversial crypto rule proposed by Mnuchin at the 11th hour of his reign. This is a good thing as the majority view this U.S. administration as more favorable to crypto. Whether that's true or not has yet to be seen in my opinion, this rule will provide the first barometer reading on this new set of regulators.
For now, the FinCEN news can be stored away for a couple months.
The FED's meeting takes priority at the moment.
The DXY (US dollar index) is still indecisive on its future trends, but the meeting can be the thing to give it direction.
The same applies to bitcoin. Right now the markets are still a bit undecided. Frankly, this surprised us a bit today. Over the last 48 hours we began seeing some bullish on-chain flows coming through our alert system.
Yesterday we even got a great USDT print, which is typically bullish as well... Funding rates are also back to sane levels.
Not to mention the Grayscale Effect should be picking up almost any day now. The confluence of events are hinting at a leg higher. But in our opinion it comes back to the meeting. Once we get reassurance that the FED won't think about thinking about raising rates, that should be the green light.
We should learn a lot today.
Your pulse on crypto,
B
Jarvis AI
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